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2007 NFL Betting: Analyzing the AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS): Led by an offensive line that allowed unheralded minor amount of catch in the League for the third consecutive season, the Colts racked up a NFL record for the third conversion rate of 56.1 percent last season. QB Peyton Manning, WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, and RB Joseph Addai, who added 1071 yards rushing as a rookie, is back for another season. The defense, which repaired a poor performance against the run at the end of the season, must replace a pair of cornerbacks, but has solid background and should be adequate.
By the Numbers (regular season, 1998-2006)
SU: 92-52
ATS: 72-68-4
HF: 32-31-1
HD: 3-3
AF: 21-16-2
AD: 14-13-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Colts are 8.1 compared to the Heads of ATS, who play at home Nov. 18.
Sports Betting Angle: Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS the week after playing weak division, Houston.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): The Jaguars took several steps behind 12-4 in the 2005 season and the blame falls directly in an offense that was anemic last season. Head coach Jack Del Rio fired three offensive assistants and the Jaguars will opt for a power run game based on the tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew 941 yards) and Fred Taylor (1,146 meters), taking some heat off of QB Byron Leftwich, who lacks a receiving corps quality. Although a group of injuries, the Jacksonville defense finished second in the NFL. If Leftwich stays healthy and the offense improves, the Jaguars could challenge by a wild-card spot.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 77-67
ATS: 73-65-5
HF: 27-23-2
HD: 12-7-1
AF: 12-19-1
AD: 22-17-1
Sportsbook Buster: The Jaguars have covered four straight against the Steelers, who meet in Pittsburgh on December 16.
Sports Betting Angle: Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS after a game of double-digit loss.

Tennessee Titans (8-8 SU, 11-5 ATS): The Titans won six of seven games down the stretch, especially since QB Vince Young began to demonstrate his extraordinary talent, proving to be a player who could take over a game and make things happen. Unfortunately, this is only youth on their own, now that (1,211 Top running back Travis Henry yards) and wideouts Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, the top two receivers in passing, have left the team. The defense, which had only 26 sacks last year, was devastated by the loss of CB Pacman Jones, he now has bigger problems than men to man coverage. Even with the youth of explosives, it is difficult to imagine the Titans back in the playoffs.
In the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)
SU: 81-63
ATS: 71-67-2
HF: 21-26-1
HD: 13.10
AF: 10-13-1
AD: 24-21
Sports Buster: The Titans are 0-9 ATS as road favorites of less than three points after a SU win.
Sports Betting Angle: Tennessee has covered four straight against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, which brings together the successive weekends, Oct. 7 and 14.

Houston Texans (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS): The Texans finished 28th in offensive last season and QB David Carr, who had 43 sacks, was closed, which makes the starting quarterback Matt Schaub. The addition of former Packer Ahman Green gives Houston a veteran runner and Andre Johnson, who caught 103 passes last year despite numerous double teams, is a quality receiver. The offensive line over an area problems, still need a left tackle. The defense of the season was better in Texas, but just do not have enough overall quality to make a move on the scale division this year.
By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)
SU: 24-56
ATS: 39-40-1
HF: 4-6
HD: 16-13-1
AF: 0-0
AD: 19-21
Sportsbook Buster: The Texans are 4-13 as a non-underdog division of more than three points.
Sports Betting Angle: Houston is 5.1 ATS against Jacksonville, they play on the road October 14 and at home Dec. 30.

Legend:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog

The third in a series of eight-part preview NFL betting
Next: Analyzing the AFC West

About the Author

This article was written by Karol Lucan for http://www.thegreek.com
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